USDSEK bull bat harmonic pattern update
I posted this potential USDSEK bull bat harmonic pattern trade set on 2nd April. Price turned on a dime at the 88.6% retrace of XA. It fairly smartly hit T1. The second half position progressed nicely with a trail stop to produce 200 pips (2000 pipettes) profit. It challenged structural resistance at the C level of the harmonic pattern 3 times before taking out the trail stop and forming what may be a head & shoulders type structure.
USDSEK 4H April 2012 D bull bat harmonic pattern
USDSEK 4H April 2012 A bull bat harmonic pattern
AUDCHF bear bat harmonic pattern update, 40 profits with 1st half position, 2nd to break even
I have decided to take 40 pips profit with 1st half position on this AUDCHF bear bat harmonic pattern. The second half is now at break even.
AUDCHF 4H April 2012 bear bat harmonic pattern
AUDCHF 4H April 2012 bear bat harmonic pattern B
GBPUSD potential harmonic pattern set ups
GBPUSD is shaping up for a couple of potential bat harmonic patterns. In an Elliott wave correction, it is quite common to have one harmonic pattern complete, for example as a bear bat, and then form another bull harmonic pattern later. The emotion of trailing a stop behind profit on the first pattern can make us miss the next opportunity, because it is contrary to our desire for price to continue in the direction of profit for the initial harmonic pattern. I have seen and traded 2 and 3 consecutive harmonic patterns like this.
The two potential harmonic patterns shown on the 4H GBPUSD chart are, firstly, a bear bat with the RSI approaching over bought. The daily chart shows a couple of trend lines, one of which nicely coincides with the 88.6% retrace of the orange XA for this harmonic pattern. The other trend line offers further potential resistance below the orange X level. Interestingly, GBPCAD (tanks pretty cousin) has already completed a bear bat harmonic pattern, as mentioned in last post. Is this a harbinger for GBPUSD to do the same soon or will it simply collapse before completing the harmonic pattern?
Lets wait patiently and see if either harmonic pattern develops.......fore warned is fore armed!
GBPUSD 4H April 2012 bull & bear bat harmonic patterns A
GBPUSD Daily April 2012 bull & bear bat harmonic pattern A
GBPCAD bear bat harmonic pattern update
The GBPCAD bear bat harmonic pattern set up, posted earlier in the week, made a nice 120 pip drop into and past T1. Unfortunately, I didn't get filled on this trade as price reversed about 13 pips below my entry point (88.6% retrace of CD) for the harmonic pattern.
Again, we are always wise in retrospect, "front running" this trade would have been a good idea looking back, but when price exceeds your entry point and puts you in the red enough times then "front running" seems less attractive. In saying that I do front run some trades. In the instance of this harmonic pattern 15 pips more risk to gain 100 pips would have been nice.
There will always be other opportunities, whether you use a harmonic pattern or some other method. I believe it is a valuable exercise to post mortemize (I just invented that last word ending) the near misses and the losers, as well as the winners.
GBPCAD 1H April 2012 bear bat harmonic pattern B
EURUSD 4h March 2012 B bear gartley-bat
GBPCAD potential harmonic pattern set ups, bear bat & gartley
Keeping an eye on the GBPCAD on the 1H chart to see if it develops into a bear bat harmonic pattern with it's PRZ at the 88.6% retrace of XA. It is already diverging on the 1H and coming up to over bought on the 4H. The daily chart shows a larger potential bear gartley harmonic pattern with nice 61.8% retraces so far for points B and C.
The smaller bear bat harmonic pattern can be seen on the daily chart (within red rectangle) to have its potential 88.6% PRZ in close proximity to a descending upper channel line. The latter may act as significant resistance, thus re-enforcing the PRZ of the harmonic pattern.
Again, the larger harmonic pattern often dominates, so initial targets for the smaller pattern should be non-aggressive. If resistance at the upper channel line, seen on daily, is breached then there is a good chance of the larger bear gartley harmonic pattern forming it's CD leg. The weekly chart shows a complex Elliott Wave correction after a significant down trend.
GBPCAD 1H April 2012 bear bat harmonic pattern A
GBPCAD Daily April 2012 bear bat & gartley harmonic pattern A