audjpy stopped out for 170 pip loss
Last audjpy trade got stopped out for 170 pip loss. So, between the previous trade (160 pip gain) and this one on this pair, there is a net deficit of -10 pips. An bullish opening gap on Sunday was the result of increased optimism of a resolution to the Greek crisis spurring a resumation of risk appetite and therefore gains for the aud risk currency. After closing on the 113 ext on Friday upwards progress has regressed 7 pips below the 127 ext of XA with an attempt to fill the gap.
AUDJPY DAILY 20 FEB 2012 C
audjpy bear gartley, elliott wave 3 blue completion update
The bear gartley coinciding with a possible elliott wave 3 blue completion, described earlier in the week, has met resistance at the X level of the bear gartley, not quite touching the upper channel line.
The completion of the blue elliott wave 3 may be in place with the expectation that price will drop to at least the lower line of the rising channel for an elliott wave blue 4 completion. The elliott wave corrective expectation may indeed be a drop down to the extreme of elliott wave black iv level (8050), which is also the 50% Fibonacci retrace of the final CD leg of the bear gartley.
I have shorted this pair at 8376 and have target 1 at the lower channel line where blue elliott wave 4 may complete or at least meet significant support. If price breaks the lower channel line then it will then act as resistance and subsequently may result in price dropping to the level of elliott black wave iv which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg of the bear gartley. Otherwise it may rally from the lower channel line and move up to complete an elliott blue wave 5.
bear gartley
bear gartley
AUDJPY Completes Bear Gartley, 160 pips profit
The AUDJPY gave 160 pips profit on the first half position as it reversed 8 pips below the 88.6% Fibonacci retrace of XA. It then rallied to take out the stop on 2nd half position for break even. Currently the AUDJPY is again challenging the important 88.6% Fibonacci resistance line on daily divergence, forming a potential double top. If rallies above the 88.6% line then it will be heading towards the resistance of the upper trend line of a rising channel which closely coincides with the X level of the bear gartley.
AUDJPY BEAR GARTLEY ELLIOTT WAVE
Weekly Market Update 01/02/2012 – Harmonic Patterns
This weeks video update is looking at 4 pairs, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY and the GBPNZD that are showing nice harmonic patterns, Elliott Wave formations with associated Fibonacci percentages.
The AUDUSD and AUDJPY have formed bear gartleys, which are classic harmonic patterns. The AUDUSD bear gartley is currently challenging the X point of the gartley and is being confined within the upper trend line of a rising channel. It is also diverging on the daily RSI.
The AUDJPY has also demonstrated completion of a bear gartley 8 pips below the 88.6% PRZ and is now retesting this important Fibonacci perectage resistance area with RSI divergence, again on the daily.
Other harmonic patterns include the NZDJPY has formed bear bat. The NZDJPY bear bat is finding resistance at the 94.1% Fibonacci retrace of XA, with associated RSI divergence on the daily chart.
Again in our run of harmonic patterns GBPNZD has compelted a bull bat as it may have begun its countertrend reversal 13 pips above the 88.6% retrace of XA on daily RSI divergence. The harmonic bat patterns offer very good risk/reward, with low risk and high potential for larger reward. The bear gartley has a less favourable risk/reward but is a high probability win pattern.
Harmonic patterns work well when used in an Elliott Wave context, the GBPNZD may have completed wave 3, coinciding with the completion of the bull bat pattern in close proximity to the 88.6% retrace of XA. Elliott Wave counts for the AUDUSD and the AUDJPY bear gartleys are less clear. Elliott Wave count for the NZDJPY bear bat strongly suggests the high probability of a wave 3 completion coinciding with previous significant structure (X of bear bat) on daily RSI divergence.