audjpy stopped out for 170 pip loss
Last audjpy trade got stopped out for 170 pip loss. So, between the previous trade (160 pip gain) and this one on this pair, there is a net deficit of -10 pips. An bullish opening gap on Sunday was the result of increased optimism of a resolution to the Greek crisis spurring a resumation of risk appetite and therefore gains for the aud risk currency. After closing on the 113 ext on Friday upwards progress has regressed 7 pips below the 127 ext of XA with an attempt to fill the gap.
AUDJPY DAILY 20 FEB 2012 C
audchf forming bull gartley harmonic pattern
Audchf is forming a bull gartley harmonic pattern. It is oversold on 1H chart but not on 4H. Going to wait for an entry at the 88.6% retrace of XA of harmonic pattern, which may coincide with OS RSI on 4H and diverging RSI on 1H.
This pattern has nice 61.8% fib retraces for B and C. Better risk reward potential if the harmonic pattern completes in or around the 88.6% retrace of CD on favourable RSI readings.
T1 is the 38.2% retrace of CD of gartley harmonic pattern.
audchf bull gartley harmonic pattern
AUDCHF Potential Bull Bat Harmonic Pattern reasonable Elliott Wave clarity
The audchf is potentially setting up to form a bull bat harmonic pattern. The Fibonacci percentages are good. IF price has completed a blue elliott wave 4 and is confined within the downward channel then there is potential for the completion of a bull bat harmonic pattern in or around the 88.6% retrace of XA (Circa 9697). This would need to be confirmed with a diverging or extreme RSI reading.
As well as this potential harmonic pattern, an asymmetrical head & shoulders pattern can also be discerned. The neck line of this pattern often provides resistance. T1 is below this neck line at the 38.2% retrace of CD. There is also some historical structure looking left to provide potential support against the trade moving in the wrong direction. If price does rally, then a good bullish sign for attaining T1 will be breaking and closing above the upper line of the descending channel.
A bat (bull or bear) harmonic pattern offers a good risk reward, giving it's potential reversal zone (PRZ) close to the X level of the pattern. Obviously the stop should be beyond X. In this instance a one to one risk reward strategy means the stop would be placed at 9603 price level. Also ideally it is prudent to have the stop beyond the 113% extension of XA, which in this case it would be.
Let's see if this scenario plays out. The beauty of using a harmonic pattern and elliott wave principle combined is that one can be predictive. Obviously, not all predictions play out, but many do. When they do you can be ready well in advance to decide whether or not you will get involved in the trade. By doing such work ahead of time you will know exactly where to enter, place the stop and what your target should be.
audjpy bear gartley, elliott wave 3 blue completion update
The bear gartley coinciding with a possible elliott wave 3 blue completion, described earlier in the week, has met resistance at the X level of the bear gartley, not quite touching the upper channel line.
The completion of the blue elliott wave 3 may be in place with the expectation that price will drop to at least the lower line of the rising channel for an elliott wave blue 4 completion. The elliott wave corrective expectation may indeed be a drop down to the extreme of elliott wave black iv level (8050), which is also the 50% Fibonacci retrace of the final CD leg of the bear gartley.
I have shorted this pair at 8376 and have target 1 at the lower channel line where blue elliott wave 4 may complete or at least meet significant support. If price breaks the lower channel line then it will then act as resistance and subsequently may result in price dropping to the level of elliott black wave iv which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg of the bear gartley. Otherwise it may rally from the lower channel line and move up to complete an elliott blue wave 5.
bear gartley
bear gartley
AUDJPY Completes Bear Gartley, 160 pips profit
The AUDJPY gave 160 pips profit on the first half position as it reversed 8 pips below the 88.6% Fibonacci retrace of XA. It then rallied to take out the stop on 2nd half position for break even. Currently the AUDJPY is again challenging the important 88.6% Fibonacci resistance line on daily divergence, forming a potential double top. If rallies above the 88.6% line then it will be heading towards the resistance of the upper trend line of a rising channel which closely coincides with the X level of the bear gartley.
AUDJPY BEAR GARTLEY ELLIOTT WAVE